Wells: Bautista set the tone with heavy forward pressure, leg kicks and punches. Aldo landed a couple of counters, but Bautista went to work in the clinch after shooting for a takedown. Knees to the thighs and shoulder strikes in close kept Bautista busy enough to prevent a referee separation. A nice left elbow landed for Bautista a few seconds before the exit. Aldo landed a leg kick, but a couple of clean right hands from Bautista also found their mark. Bautista went back to the clinch with two minutes to go. Aldo shucked him off and started moving forward, missing with big punches. Bautista dug in with a leg kick and a right hand. Aldo’s best shot of the fight up to that point was a counter right hand. Bautista kicked to the body, and just before the 10-second mark, Aldo landed a solid two-punch combo.

It’s one thing to say Aldo started the fight slowly, but Bautista never gave him room to get settled in. It was forward pressure from the start, and his forward movement and striking volume earned the round.

Wells’ score: 10-9 Bautista

Bohn: This was Bautista’s best round of the fight. He took away Aldo’s kicking game from the outset with the use of pressure, and although he failed on both his takedown attempts, his more than two minutes of control time on the cage was complimented by him doubling Aldo in total strikes landed with 40 compared 20.

Bohn’s score: 10-9 Bautista

Segura: Bautisa’s gamplan was in full display in Round 1. It was very simple: Strike with Aldo and mix in the clinch control against the cage to break up Aldo’s rhythm while also racking up some control time. It worked. It wasn’t very fan friendly, but he slightly got ahead of Aldo, winning the Round in my book.

Segura’s score: 10-9, Bautista

Wells: Aldo got going early in Round 2 by opening a cut on Bautista with a sharp counter left hand. The same strike repeatedly landed in the opening minute. Bautista shot in, but was met with a counter knee from Aldo, dropping Bautista to the mat as he held on to a single leg attempt. Aldo pounded Bautista in the head until he could escape the hold. Bautista reset and resumed his forward approach, but ate more counters from Aldo. Bautista was able to get back into the clinch and land a few nice shoulder strikes. Things heated up with two minutes to go, when both fighters landed in punching exchanges. Bautista then hunted for another single leg, but was once again denied. Aldo ripped a few punches after the exit, and Bautista looked for a takedown again with just few ticks left on the clock.

Bautista landed his share of strikes when the fight was in the center, but Aldo clearly earned the second round on damage and cleaner striking.

Wells’ score: 10-9 Aldo

Bohn: This was the clearest round to score in my opinion, and it simply comes down to output and damage. Aldo edged Bautista 21-19 in significant strikes in this round, and one of those blows opened a cut around the eye that was clearly bothering Bautista until he went back to the corner for the doctors to clean it up. Bautista tried for four takedowns this round, but all of them were unsuccessful. Moreover, despite having more than two minutes of control time in the clinch again, Bautista was not credited with a single strike landed from clinch position, which is an indictment on a stalling strategy.

Bohn’s score: 10-9 Aldo

Segura: Entering the second round, Aldo had some catching up to do and that he did. The Brazilian kept his distance much better, was able to break away from Bautista’s clinch with relative ease, all while keeping busy and landing the harder shots on the fight. Aldo also cut Bautia’s right eye, which gives him some points in the damage department. It was pretty clear who did the most damage in this round, and Bautista wasn’t able to control enough of the fight to offset the loss in the damage and striking department.

Segura’s score: 10-9 Aldo

Wells: Aldo peppered a left jab to start the round, keeping Bautista honest with his pressure. Bautista mixed up his strikes with punches to the head and body, and added a leg kick. Aldo’s more powerful offerings missed the target before Bautista shot in. Another clinch along the fence frustrated Aldo as Bautista worked to get him to the ground while adding a few knees to the thigh. Referee Mike Beltran broke up the clinch with 1:36 to go, but Bautista immediately shot right back in. With 44 seconds to go, Aldo got free and started swinging hooks as he marched forward, but couldn’t connect. A left jab got through for Aldo, but another takedown attempt halted any round-changing momentum. Aldo punched his way out of the final clinch with less than 10 seconds remaining, but neither fighter landed anything significant in the last exchange.

Bautista’s grappling in Round 3 was adequate to prevent Aldo from mounting offense. Despite the crowd’s reactions to every strike thrown by Aldo, he didn’t land enough to win the round, considering Bautista landed his share of strikes, too.

Wells’ score: 10-9 Bautista

Bohn: The final round resembled the second much more than the first with how things played out. Aldo wasn’t able to create the same damaging impacts as he did in the previous frame, but he still outlanded Bautista in both significant and total strikes by the slimmest of margins. Bautista logged 2:41 of control time in the round from clinch positions against the fence, but yet again was credited with zero strikes thrown or landed landed from the position. Aldo should’ve shown more desperation to escape while being held, but Bautista did nothing meaningful against the cage other than run time off the clock.

Bohn’s score: 10-9 Aldo

Segura: There’s no debating who won Rounds 1 and 2. It was Round 3 that decided the fight. Bautista’s pretty much held Aldo against the cage for the majority of the round. He landed some knees to the legs and shoulder strikes, but that was nothing more than busy shots. There was almost no damage from his part. However, unfortunately for Aldo, the little time this fight went down on the feet, he wasn’t able to do much. Setting my Aldo love and bias aside, in my eyes it’s pretty simple: Bautista basically tied Aldo on the feet, but managed to control him for most of the round, holding him against his will on the cage. You have to give Bautista credit for his significant control time since damage was basically equal. Yes, Aldo was marching foward, but he didn’t land much and got pressed against the cage for what it felt like an eternity.

Segura’s score: 10-9, Bautista

Wells: Bautista simply did what he had to do to get his hand raised. His clinch work in Round 3 put Aldo in a place he didn’t want to be, keeping his back pinned against the fence, effectively shutting down Aldo’s offense. While he only got Aldo to a knee twice for a split second, Bautista pushed the action, forcing Aldo to defend throughout the round. The knees to the thigh weren’t the most significant strikes in the world, but they were there as Bautista kept the fight on his terms. Ultimately, Aldo couldn’t put together enough offense to win the round. What I saw on the initial watch was the same on the second watch: Aldo gave the fight away to a hungry rising contender by not getting his back off the cage.

Wells’ overall score: 29-28 Bautista

Bohn: Although I agree with Wells’ assessment that Aldo was too complacent in the clinch, if I have to answer the root question of whether Bautista’s clinch work in Round 3 was overvalued, I have to say yes. The man did not throw a single strike in nearly three minutes of control time. Not a knee to the thighs. Not a foot stomp. Not a little rabbit punch. Nothing. That just doesn’t sit well with me. And I wish the referee had been a little more engaged in breaking them up, even if Bautista’s next move was to shoot right back in. What Bautista did was much closer to stalling than implementing effective grappling, and when he’s doing nothing but holding it makes it more difficult for Aldo to get his back off the cage. I liked Aldo’s moments between all that nonsense better, and it’s what tipped the final round and the fight in his favor from my perspective.

Bohn’s score: 29-28 Aldo

Segura: As much as I hated Bautista’s tactic and showing in this fight, you have to judge the contest for what it is and not look to punish the fighter who was being conservative or boring, for lack of a better word. That’s what I saw many online doing, and I don’t blame them – it’s f*cking Jose Aldo. Everyone loves that man, but you can’t let the fanatisicsm for Aldo taint your judging. I feel if the exact fight played out, but with a different fighter in Aldo’s shoes, most people would judge the fight for Bautista and not Aldo. They each split rounds in the first 10 minutes of the fight, and there was basically no damage in the final 5 minutes, just one fighter controlling the other. For me, it was a straightfoward call.

Segura: 29-28 Bautista

Official decision: Mario Bautista def. Jose Aldo via split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

Official individual judges’ scores:
Derek Cleary: 29-28 Bautista
Mike Bell: 29-28 Bautista
Chris Lee: 29-28 Aldo