Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland are set to do battle once again.

This Saturday, du Plessis and Strickland rematch for the middleweight title in the main event of UFC 312. In their first encounter, du Plessis edged out a split decision victory that Strickland still disputes. Since then, both men have picked up wins, with du Plessis finishing Israel Adesanya and Strickland taking a split decision over Paulo Costa.

What will happen this time around, and what, if any, adjustments will be made? Let’s dive in.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Paths to Victory for Dricus du Plessis at UFC 312

The first fight between du Plessis and Strickland came down to one simple paradigm: du Plessis was trying to hurt Strickland, and Strickland was not doing the same. If you go back and watch the fight, after the first round where they were feeling each other out, du Plessis simply never stops coming forward and swinging with ill intent. Strickland, meanwhile, keeps defending and jabbing and teeping. As a result, Strickland scores more, but du Plessis has the big moments and wins on the judge’s scorecards. That same dynamic is likely still in play this time around.

Throughout his career, Strickland has not been a very adaptable fighter. He has the style that he has, and come hell or high water, that’s what he’s going to do in there. That means du Plessis can feel relatively confident that he can approach this fight with the same overall strategy as the first one, just with a few different wrinkles and answers. If I were in his corner, these are the points I’d reinforce.

First and foremost is answers to Strickland’s jab since it was really the only good offense Strickland brought to the table. In the first fight, du Plessis found a few answers during the action, and I suspect he’ll already have some of those prepared. Du Plessis likes to shift his stances, and from orthodox, he should just jab more himself. His jab isn’t great, but he found success with it and that’s what matters. On the other side, when he switches to southpaw, I think du Plessis will hand-fight Strickland’s lead a little more often. Simply smothering the lead hand of Strickland is a bit like declawing a cat.

The second big thing du Plessis should stress is his bodywork. Strickland is very good at checking low kicks, and his style puts a premium on protecting his head, leaving the body open to be worked over. Du Plessis’s left body kick landed at will in the first fight, and without the threat of a takedown from Strickland, there’s no reason not to throw 40 of those on Saturday. Similarly, I’d love to see du Plessis finish his combinations with body shots. Du Plessis discovered that if he threw four, five, and six punches at a time, eventually one would get through, and he got sucked into headhunting. Those blitzing combos, but finishing to the midsection will pay huge dividends.

Lastly, du Plessis was incredibly effective at timing his takedowns in the first fight but ultimately gained very little from them. Strickland showed excellent ability to get to the fence, stand, and break the grip, and du Plessis had no answer for it; that’s how six takedowns turns into just two minutes of control time. It’s possible this was the plan from du Plessis all along, but if so, it’s a bad one. Either du Plessis needs to have a way to consolidate takedowns into legitimate grappling opportunities, or he should use Strickland’s escapes as an opportunity to land power punches. If Strickland is standing up, accept that the position is lost and drill him as hard as you can because letting him stand up freely ultimately means those takedowns are little more than rhythm breakers.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Paths to victory for Sean Strickland at UFC 312

While du Plessis doesn’t need to make any sweeping strategic changes heading into this rematch, Strickland does. In their first matchup, I said Strickland needed to back du Plessis up to win the fight; he super did not do that. After the opening round (where both men were feeling things out), du Plessis basically never took a backward step, and instead, it was Strickland who was fighting on the retreat. That’s about the worst-case scenario for Strickland, who thrives as a pressure fighter, and if he hopes to reclaim the title, he can’t make the same mistake again.

The fundamental issue for Strickland is his style. Strickland’s found a style that puts all its focus into defense, which makes him incredibly hard to fight, but also neuters his own offense. Yes, you can win fights with only jabs and teeps, but it is exceedingly hard to do that while on the back foot because then you are the one wearing down, not your opponent. Strickland needs to have the initiative to win this fight, and that is doable. Strickland bullied Paulo Costa around the cage for much of their battle, and du Plessis can be forced backward; Strickland just has to be willing to pay the cost to do so.

Along those lines, it would really help Strickland if he developed a weapon that wasn’t a jab or a teep. After the first round, du Plessis made the correct calculation that he could simply walk forward with impunity because Strickland didn’t pose a serious threat. Yes, du Plessis would have to eat 100 jabs, but so what? He’s willing to do so, which put Strickland entirely on the defensive. He had no way to back “Stillknocks” off because he would not commit to bigger offense. That has to change.

As for how it changes, that’s a good question. For most people, the answer would be “throw a right hand,” but Strickland’s rear hand is ... not good. Maybe he’s been secretly working on it, and we’re about to see a James J. Braddock performance out of Strickland, but I’m skeptical. Instead, I’d suggest Strickland make liberal use of uppercuts. Du Plessis is a chaotic mess when he charges in, and his head drops down to the belt line at points; uppercuts or knees are the natural solution.

Lastly, there’s the possibility that Strickland may want to try wrestling himself. Du Plessis was free to kick wantonly in the first fight because Strickland had no answers or threats in response, but timing a takedown or two of his own could solve this problem. This does raise the risk of grappling with du Plessis, obviously, but given how successful Strickland was at getting up in the first fight, it’s probably a risk worth taking.

Prediction

Before rewatching their first encounter, I thought this was a 50/50 fight, but after going back and reviewing that matchup, I definitely favor du Plessis in this bout. In the simplest terms, du Plessis is the one who will take the initiative, and that’s half the battle won right there. On top of that, I have much more confidence in du Plessis to make adjustments and add new wrinkles coming into this rematch, while I’m nearly certain Strickland is going to be the same Strickland we’ve seen for years.

Dricus du Plessis def. Sean Strickland via unanimous decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)