MMA

UFC Paris predictions

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Benoit Saint Denis looks to make it a trio of triumphs in his return to Paris.

The lightweight contender takes on Renato Moicano in Saturday’s UFC Paris headliner in front of a supportive French crowd and in a city where he has never lost. Saint Denis has twice competed in his nation’s capital, both times scoring second-round knockouts, against Thiago Moises in 2023 and Gabriel Miranda in 2022.

If he can put away Moicano, it will reestablish Saint Denis as a potential title challenger in one of MMA’s deepest divisions. Saint Denis is coming off of his first UFC loss, a Fight of the Night defeat at the hands of lightweight legend Dustin Poirier, and he has the chance to prove his thrilling five-fight win streak wasn’t lightning in a bottle.

Moicano has become appointment viewing and not just because he’s won three straight. His “Money” persona has captivated fans as he generates anticipation for what he’ll do in his fights and what he’ll say after whenever he makes the walk to the octagon. It’s anyone’s guess what he’ll have in store for a sea of disgruntled Parisians should he beat Saint Denis.

In the co-main event, Nassourdine Imavov is tasked with defending his spot against a highly motivated Brendan Allen. “All In” isn’t happy with how the UFC has ranked him, and he’s eager to take out his frustrations on Imavov, while moving one step closer to the top 5 of the division.

Also on the main card, William Gomis and Joanderson Brito battle for a spot in the featherweight top 15, welterweights Kevin Jousset and Bryan Battle put their undefeated streaks on the line, former Cage Warriors featherweight champion Morgan Charriere takes on Gabriel Miranda, and Fares Ziam takes on the always exciting Matt Frevola in the lightweight opener.

What: UFC Paris

Where: Accor Arena in Paris

When: Saturday, Sept. 28. The eight-fight preliminary card begins at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 3 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.


(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)

Renato Moicano (12) vs. Benoit Saint Denis (14)

Can Renato Moicano outlast Benoit Saint Denis? That’s really the question.

Moicano has a history of defusing fighters that are perceived to be heavier hitters than him. Consider how he used his elite jiu-jitsu to ground Jalin Turner, Drew Dober, and Brad Riddell. And that stems from his willingness to stand and scrap too. His grappling compliments his striking and vise-a-versa. He’s just effective enough on the feet to force his opponents to respect him and leave gaps in their defense.

When it comes to Saint Denis, the gaps aren’t hard to find, it’s exploiting them that’s the problem. The French star fights with a physicality that’s nearly unmatched at 170 pounds and he’s more than capable of bridging the experience gap by sheer force of will. That’s why I expect him to win on Saturday.

Moicano is the more skilled, more well-rounded fighter, but it’s fair to question his durability. He has to last at least two hard rounds with Saint Denis, and I don’t see that happening. His past losses have come when he is just overwhelmed, and Saint Denis will have 20,000 hollering fans backing his attack.

Saint Denis finishes in the first.

Pick: Saint Denis

Nassourdine Imavov (T7) vs. Brendan Allen (8)

Yes, it’s time for everyone’s favorite game show: AK Lee Picks Against Brendan Allen!

Your contestants today, Nassourdine Imavov and, of course, our returning champion currently on a seven-fight win streak, Brendan Allen, ladies and gentlemen!

I’ve picked against Allen in four straight predictions pieces, and for his sake, I’m doing it again. Not that I believe in any kind of superstitions, but in the off chance they exist, I might just reverse jinx Allen all the way to a freaking UFC title fight. And if I pick against him there... anything is possible.

There are more substantial reasons to pick Imavov to win, too. The Frenchman’s specialty is timing and precision, and when he’s able to effectively control the distance, he looks like one of the best strikers in the middleweight division. He’s strong enough to not be out-muscled if Allen wants to grapple and won’t shy away from a takedown attempt if the opportunity presents itself.

Allen’s preference is to come forward and pressure, a strategy that has served him well during this impressive run of form. If he can cut off the cage and keep Imavov stuck to the fence, it could be another check in the W column for “All In.”

Sticking with the rules of this game show, I’m picking Imavov by decision.

Pick: Imavov

William Gomis vs. Joanderson Brito

This matchup between William Gomis and Joanderson Brito has a real matador and bull feel to it.

Gomis has carved out a nice niche for himself as one of the craftiest fighters in the featherweight division. That hasn’t always resulted in the most memorable performances, but a win is a win, and there are a lot of worse things to be than 145-pound Leon Edwards (look how well that worked out for Edwards!).

On the other side, Brito does everything with force and intention to finish. He grapples hard, he throws hard, he even fights hard off of his back. Brito is a world-class risk taker and there’s no scenario where he isn’t looking to take the advantage and set himself up for a knockout or submission.

I see Brito’s swashbuckling style paying off eventually. He’ll endure some early frustration before dialing up the offense in Round 2, hurting Gomis on the feet, and finishing with a submission.

Pick: Brito

Kevin Jousset vs. Bryan Battle

One big change for Kevin Jousset in this matchup is he’s going from an opponent in Song Kenan that he had a reach advantage over, to an opponent in Bryan Battle that has the reach advantage over him.

That’s oversimplifying this matchup, but Jousset has gotten a lot of mileage out of an effective jab and well-timed leg kicks. He’ll find the rangy Battle is considerably more difficult to outpoint from distance. Fortunately for Jousset, he brings a solid grappling background to the table, so that could be the path he takes to keep his win streak going.

Battle has been calling for a step up in competition and while Jousset is more of a lateral move, it’s the test Battle needs to show he’s truly ready to graduate to the next tier of welterweights. The Ultimate Fighter 29 winner has the tools to be a mainstay of the division, but needs seasoning with just 13 pro bouts under his belt.

This will be a closely contested, ahem, battle, that Battle will edge out on the scorecards after a hard-fought, three round battle.

Man, I wrote battle so many times there.

Pick: Battle

Morgan Charriere vs. Gabriel Miranda

Is it too severe to call this a make-or-break fight for Morgan Charriere?

I’m still of the opinion the former Cage Warriors featherweight champion can be a player in the UFC’s 145-pound division, but he has to deliver on Saturday if he’s to be taken seriously as a contender. “The Last Pirate” is one of the biggest favorites on the card, hovering around 5-to-1 on most sportsbooks.

He’s been granted a favorable matchup in Gabriel Miranda, a high-pace fighter with questionable defensive skills. Charriere shouldn’t be timid in this matchup because Miranda certainly won’t be, and if Miranda sets the tone early, his pressure could make Charriere wilt.

As versatile as Charriere is, he should be smart here and stick to sprawling and brawling, as it were. He has a significant advantage on the feet and should be able to frustrate Miranda with his takedown defense before letting his hands and feet go. I’m predicting a highlight-reel knockout win for Charriere.

Pick: Charriere

Fares Ziam vs. Matt Frevola

One way or another, this one shouldn’t go to the judges and that’s good news for Matt Frevola.

With respect to Fares Ziam—a fine technical striker that looks like he’s capable of challenging elite lightweights when he’s at his best—sometimes you’ve got to just kick some ass and that’s what Frevola always signs up for. Ziam will keep this as technical as he can for as long as he can before Frevola just rushes in and breaks the door down.

Who knows? Maybe the counter-heavy Ziam will find Frevola’s chin and finish his first fight in five years (yikes!). Or maybe this will turn into a crowd-pleasing slugfest that goes the distance. But my prediction is Frevola risks it all to crack Ziam and hand him his first knockout loss.

Pick: Frevola

Preliminaries

Ivan Erslan def. Ion Cutelaba

Oumar Sy def. Da Un Jung

Ludovit Klein def. Roosevelt Roberts

Taylor Lapilus def. Vince Morales

Darya Zheleznyakova def. Ailin Perez (15)

Daniel Barez def. Victor Altamirano

Nora Cornolle (T13) def. Jacqueline Cavalcanti

Bolaji Oki def. Chris Duncan

 

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