Neil Magny is the living embodiment of the “Ah shit here we go again” meme at this point, right?
The UFC’s career leader in welterweight wins (22) makes his 34th walk to the octagon to headline UFC Vegas 100, and as has so often been the case throughout his time with the promotion, he is a massive underdog. Looking to make his name off Magny this Saturday is Carlos Prates, a dangerous knockout artist that can put an exclamation point on his Rookie of the Year campaign if he takes out one of the division’s hardiest competitors.
It’s a fine fight to cap off a card wracked by cancellations and also burdened with slightly higher than usual expectations due to this officially being the UFC APEX’s centennial show (for whatever that’s worth). Just keep in mind the real number that matters is that this is the UFC’s 37th show of 2024, so the lineup was built with that in mind, not with celebrating an arbitrary landmark.
With that said, also on the main card, former two-division ONE Championship titleholder Reinier de Ridder makes his UFC debut against Gerald Meerschaert, Gaston Bolanos welcomes Contender Series signing Cortavious Romious to the roster, Luana Pinheiro and Gillian Robertson jockey for position in the strawweight top-15, and Mansur Abdul-Malik looks to put on a showcase performance against Dusko Todorovic.
What: UFC Vegas 100
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, Nov. 9. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a five-fight main card at 7 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings)
Neil Magny vs. Carlos Prates
Not to turn this into a No Bets Barred supplemental (never, ever use my picks for gambling purposes, trust me), but one can’t discuss Neil Magny’s recent competitive history without telling the odds. Magny has played spoiler on multiple occasions, including this past January when he won as a 3-to-1 underdog to Mike Malott at UFC 298, but his board has also seen plenty of chalk. Michael Morales, Ian Machado Garry, Gilbert Burns, and Shavkat Rakhmonov were all heavy favorites to defeat Magny and they did.
Carlos Prates’ chances of victory are right up there with those greats as he’s at least a 6-to-1 favorite depending where you get your lines. It’s not surprising, given he’s been a wrecking ball in 2024, finishing all three of his UFC opponents to extend his overall win streak to 10. At 31, Prates doesn’t look like a prospect, he looks like a fighter who could be challenging for UFC gold in 2025.
If you’re curious how Prates fares in five-round fights, the answer is there’s no data for that because he’s never had to fight past Round 3. That fact alone should be enough to give one pause as far as breaking the bank to wager on Prates, as Magny has shown he can shrug off slow starts and outlast his opponents in high-stakes fights. Prates should end this one early. If he doesn’t, don’t be surprised to see Magny rally and turn the tables on Prates in rounds 3, 4, and 5.
In Prates’ favor is that he’s proven to be excellent at conserving his energy. Magny will definitely want to push the pace to test Prates’ cardio, but Prates is not a tactless berserker. His Muay Thai is patient and precise, making it a risky proposition to attempt to walk him down.
Normally when I pick against Magny, it’s due to his suspect submission defense. This time, it’s the deficit in striking that will prove to be his doom. He’s always been solid, but Prates is spectacular, and I’m picking spectacular to win out on this day.
Prates by knockout.
Pick: Prates
