Aljamain Sterling thinks Shavkat Rakhmonov is about to lose his 0 at UFC 310.
This Saturday’s card features a matchup of undefeated welterweights, with Rakhmonov (18-0) taking on Ian Machado Garry (15-0). Rakhmonov is currently tied for No. 2 at 170 pounds in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings, with Garry sitting at No. 7.
Rakhmonov enters the fight as a heavy favorite, as high as 4-to-1 on some sportsbooks. But Sterling likes Garry’s chances of pulling off the upset and keeping his own perfect record intact.
“I lean towards Ian Garry in this one,” Sterling said on his YouTube channel. “I just think because he’s familiar with him, I don’t know if he’s still training with the Chute Box guys, I think he has really good control management of the distance. For him to beat a guy like [Michael Page] who is hard to get a hold of, it wasn’t the most exciting fight, but he did what he had to do to win. I think he knows how to win. I think he might outpoint him.”
Win or lose, should the bout go to the scorecards that will be a first for Rakhmonov. All of the Kazakh star’s wins have come by way of knockout or submission, including six UFC finishes. On the other side, almost half of Garry’s wins have come by way of decision, including his past three against Page, Geoff Neal, and Neil Magny.
One reason why Rakhmonov is so heavily favored is his versatility. Though he’s shown fine striking skills, Rakhmonov’s ability to overwhelm his opponents with his grappling has made him arguably the most dangerous fighter in the division.
Sterling is impressed with what he’s seen, but isn’t sure fans have got to see Rakhmonov’s full capabilities. Should Garry be able to at least battle Rakhmonov to a stalemate on the mat, Sterling sees a path to victory for the Irishman.
“I think to evaluate someone’s grappling, you have to see sequences to know how well they move on the ground,” Sterling said of Rakhmonov. “And I don’t know if I’ve seen it, where it’s like, alright this is enough to if things get dicey on the feet he can take him down, or if he does take him down and can end up here and he can probably finish the fight.
“But then again, I haven’t seen that from Ian either, so it’s really hard to say. I just think on the feet, I think the point-fighting game, I favor Ian Garry. The grappling’s an X-factor.”