Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland are ready for Round 2.

UFC 312 takes place this Saturday at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, headlined by a middleweight title rematch between du Plessis and Strickland. Plus, the co-main event is a strawweight title bout between longtime champion Zhang Weili and the undefeated Tatiana Suarez. The rest of the card is — well, it isn’t great, but the top two fights are elite and the rest of them still have plenty of opportunity to get some money down and have some fun on Saturday night, so let’s discuss.

All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Single Plays

Tatiana Suarez (-118)

I’ve long believed Suarez is a bad matchup for Zhang Weili. While Zhang is well-rounded and a great athlete, Suarez brings a physicality and focused grappling game that is going to be hard for Zhang to manage. Rose Namajunas scored repeated takedowns on Zhang and she’s not nearly the wrestler Suarez is. I think Suarez should be able to get this to the floor and once there, she’s far more dangerous in the grappling exchanges. Add in that Zhang is 35 years old (basically no one remains champion in the lower weight classes at that age) and I like Suarez a lot this weekend.

Tom Nolan (-104)

Nolan takes on Viacheslav Borshchev in a lightweight prelim bout on Saturday and it should surprise no one that I’m backing him. Nolan was my favorite prospect coming off Season 7 of Contender Series and while I would revise those rankings a bit now, I’m still high on his potential. Nolan is a gigantic lightweight with great finishing instincts and solid overall skills. His issue is in athleticism and “Slava Claus” shouldn’t really big a huge problem in that regard. Nolan can compete on the feet and can also take this to the floor if need be.

Colby Thicknesse (+285)

Thicknesse takes on Aleksandre Topuria on Saturday in an early prelim bout and this bet is entirely a fade on Topuria. Topuria may be a talented fighter, but the truth is we have no idea. He’s competed sparingly over the past few years and all of his fights have come against dreadful opposition. If his name were Steve Williams instead of Topuria, he wouldn’t be here, so given that, he shouldn’t be this big of a favorite either. Thicknesse is a talented prospect in his own right and should be getting more respect than this.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Prop Bets

Dricus du Plessis by Points (+175)

Fair warning, I was horrible on prop bets last year, so much so that I stopped doing them, but we’re going to try again this weekend because there are several I like. I have a full breakdown on this fight coming, but the short version is that I believe it will be very similar to the first encounter except Strickland will fight the same and du Plessis will have a few new tools in his bag, meaning a more decisive decision for “DDP” on Saturday.

Wang Cong by KO/TKO (+240)

Wang faces Bruna Brasil in a prelim bout and even though she was just on the bad end of one of the biggest upsets in UFC betting history, I’m not fading her this week. Before she unexpectedly got dropped and tapped, Wang was cruising against Gabriella Fernandes, and we all know this is a sport where crazy things happen. The fact remains that Wang has good defensive wrestling and legitimate power at flyweight, and three of Brasil’s four career losses have been by KO/TKO.

Kody Steele by Submission (+380)

Steele makes his UFC debut on the early prelims against Rongzhu and I’m predicting a big night for him. Steele is a great prospect coming off the most recent Contender Series season and more importantly, he’s a great grappler. Four of Rongzhu’s six career losses have come by way of submission so we’re getting a great price on a very realistic outcome.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Parlay

At this point you probably already know that there are few things I like more than a gimmick parlay, and while there’s an obvious Brother Parlay available with Topuria and Justin Tafa, that’s not the one for me this week. Instead, UFC 312 features four fighters I graded as Round 2 prospects from the most recent season of Contender Series, so I’m teaming the three favorites together (Jonathan Micallef has a tough fight against Kevin Jousset, and I’m a coward, sue me).

Tallison Teixeira (-146)

Texieria makes his UFC debut against Justin Tafa in the featured main card fight and while there’s no world in which he should be placed that high, Teixeira is a legitimately interesting prospect. He has a massive frame and he’s undefeated and young, all of which screams potential at heavyweight, plus he’s got pretty polished skills already. He’s still got some growing to do but Teixeira is comically larger than Tafa and should get the win.

Kody Steele (-260)

I’m doubling up on Steele but that’s how much I like this kid. The only reason Steele didn’t grade out as a Round 1 prospect is because he turns 30 in a couple of months and that’s old to be just starting out, especially in a shark tank like lightweight. If Steele were younger he would have been one of the top prospects last season and I still expect him to make some noise in the UFC.

Quillan Salkilld (-650)

Salkilld takes on Anshul Jubli in an early prelim fight and he’s a massive favorite for a reason. Jubli isn’t especially dazzling and Salkilld is a very solid prospect. He’s unbeaten since losing his debut, has an extensive amateur background, has fought real opposition, and has well-rounded skills and solid athleticism. The former Eternal MMA champion has a bright future in the UFC and it starts on Saturday.

Parlay these three bets together for +169 odds.

Wrap Up

Been a slow start to the year for us but for as bad as this card might be on paper, plenty of betting opportunities. Hopefully we get things going in the right direction.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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