UFC 312 doesn’t just have implications at the top of two weight classes, it also has the potential to shake up the pound-for-pound rankings.

Heading into Saturday, middleweight champion Dricus du Plessis and Zhang Weili have plenty to prove, with du Plessis currently at No. 7 on MMA Fighting’s Men’s P4P list and Zhang at No. 2 on the Women’s P4P list, just a few points behind Valentina Shevchenko. They both have the opportunity to bolster their already impressive résumés with tonight’s title defenses.

Du Plessis sees a familiar face in the main event as he squares off with Sean Strickland 13 months after their first encounter, which saw du Plessis take the 185-pound strap from Strickland via a close split decision. It’s been an incredible run for du Plessis, currently 8-0 in the UFC with his past three victories coming against Strickland, Israel Adesanya, and Robert Whittaker. It’s a stretch of success that should arguably have du Plessis in the P4P top 5 and a second—and ideally, more definitive—win over Strickland only strengthens that case.

For Zhang, handing Tatiana Suarez her first loss would be an incredible feat, adding to a list of accolades that already includes two reigns as UFC strawweight champion and three successful title defenses. With another Zhang victory, we have to ask where Zhang stands not only on the current P4P list, but the all-time P4P list among the likes of Amanda Nunes, Cris Cyborg, Valentina Shevchenko, and others.

Then again, it’s entirely possible Strickland and Suarez knock off the champs, upending the current P4P discussion altogether.

What: UFC 312

Where: Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney

When: Saturday, Feb. 8. The three-fight early preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+ and Disney+, followed by a four-fight preliminary card airing on those same platforms and ESPN2 at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

Dricus du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland

The rematch between Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland is a question of more.

I was cageside at UFC 297 for their first fight and despite a spirited effort from both men in the latter stages of the fight, neither did enough in my eyes to pull away on the cards. The close scores reflected that (I had it 48-47 Strickland), which is why just over a year later we find ourselves here again. Now it’s time to see who can do more to truly stake their claim as the superior fighter.

Can du Plessis land with more volume in addition to landing the harder shots, as he did in the first fight? Can he do more with his grappling besides hold Strickland down for a few harmless seconds? Can he put even more pressure on Strickland and leave the challenger no room to breathe?

Strickland also has to make adjustments. Can he do more damage than usual? Can he implement more of his own grappling to throw du Plessis off his game? Can he push the pace more in the championship rounds to seal the deal?

Just based on having the more potent offense, du Plessis should have the advantage here, but no one should be surprised if this goes the distance and Strickland manages to scrape out the decision this time. It’s on the champ to make sure that doesn’t happen.

In his first title defense, du Plessis became the first fighter ever to submit Israel Adesanya, and I think he does the same to Strickland, forcing him to tap out for the first time in his 17-year career.

Pick: Du Plessis

Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez

If there’s one thing I don’t love about Zhang Weili’s chances of defending it’s all of her talk about going up to 125 to fight Valentina Shevchenko. Sure, this is probably something that’s been on her mind for a while, even ahead of her past two title defenses and those went just fine, but counting your chickens before they hatch rarely goes well in combat sports.

Looking past Tatiana Suarez would be crazy, given that Suarez has the same kind of wrestling and grappling expertise that has raised many a fighter to champion status. It’s not as if Zhang is a rock when it comes to takedown defense either. She’s a great athlete, so she can work her way out of bad situations on the ground with a combination of technique and raw power, but you don’t want Suarez on top of you if you can avoid it.

Every round that Suarez can bank with her wrestling will pay off later, where she’s unproven in the championship rounds. We know Zhang can go a hard 25 minutes, but can Suarez maintain her game plan in rounds 4 and 5? We know she excels as the hammer, but how will she react to being the nail if Zhang gets her striking going?

This is such a compelling matchup and even though Virna Jandiroba is just as deserving of a shot, it feels like we would have lost something if Suarez never got her shot at Zhang. That said, I’m going with the more well-rounded champ to win a decision.

Pick: Zhang

Justin Tafa vs. Tallison Teixeira

Please let this be fun. Please let this be fun. Please let this be fun.

The potential for heavyweight weirdness is certainly here as we have the stout Justin Tafa welcoming the towering Tallison Teixeira to the UFC. There’s about seven inches of height difference between these two, so not quite Mark Hunt vs. Stefan Struve, but Tafa will have to channel “The Super Samoan” if he’s to find Teixeira’s chin and take him down a notch.

Tafa likes to swing for the fences, so his best strategy might be to just come out with his fists ready fly, almost like someone trying to make themselves look bigger to scare off a wild animal. That approach certainly comes with risk, as Teixeira loves to throw looping punches and kicks with the intention of removing heads from shoulders.

There’s also the possibility the taller Teixeira takes a cue from Sergei Pavlovich’s performance against Jairzinho Rozenstruik and just tackles Tafa if the action starts to get too hot. Let’s hope it doesn’t go that route.

I’ll go with the newcomer scoring a first-round knockout after a spirited few minutes of back-and-forth clubbering.

Pick: Teixeira

Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato

It’s easy to forget that Jimmy Crute is just shy of 29 years old and at one point had a number next to his name in the UFC’s light heavyweight rankings. He’s in dire need of a win here, having gone 0-3 with a no-contest since beating Modestas Bukauskas all the way back in October 2020. His prospects are also muddled by his retirement pump fake when we saw last saw him at UFC 290, so it’s anyone’s guess where his head is at now.

Crute better be up to speed because Rodolfo Bellato is not an opponent that’s going to give you time to find your sea legs. The Brazilian finisher loves to come forward and get up close and personal, punishing his foes with punches in close and nasty clinch work. He’ll have little sympathy for Crute’s lengthy layoff once that cage door closes.

On the other hand, being thrown right into the fire (I know, I’m mixing my metaphors) might be exactly what Crute needs if he’s to find that spark again. Bellato’s defense is suspect, so the opportunities will be there for Crute to do some damage of his own.

With the Australian crowd behind him, look for Crute to be spurred on to a career-saving performance and maybe the start of another run up the 205 ladder.

Pick: Crute

Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado

Jake Matthews hasn’t won consecutive fights since 2020, but I think he breaks that trend Saturday.

“The Celtic Kid” is a hardened veteran at this stage of his career and, for better or worse, you know what you’re getting with him. He’s a solid athlete, springy on his feet, and capable of some thrilling bursts of offense. He’s also prone to make mistakes and can be frustrating to watch when he has an off night. Still, I saw a grittiness in his win over Philip Rowe that makes me feel confident picking him.

At 22, Francisco Prado is where Matthews once was, bright-eyed and bushy tailed and making the move up to 170 pounds. His compact build packs some serious punch and I’m intrigued to see how his speed benefits him in a heavier weight class. At his best, you can picture Prado making Matthews miss and battering him with counters.

Prado showed serious grit in a Fight of the Night loss to Daniel Zellhuber, so I doubt Matthews can put him away inside the distance. But I do favor Matthews to capitalize on his size and reach advantage, winning the exchanges from range and mixing in takedowns to keep Prado guessing.

Matthews by decision.

Pick: Matthews

Preliminaries

Jack Jenkins def. Gabriel Santos

Tom Nolan def. Viacheslav Borshchev

Wang Cong def. Bruna Brasil

Colby Thicknesse def. Aleksandre Topuria

Kevin Jousset def. Jonathan Micallef

Kody Steele def. Rongzhu

Quillan Salkilld def. Anshul Jubli